Balakot, India, Pakistan and Modi
India’s air strikes in Balakot in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province were a first. Never since 1971 had India entered Pakistani airspace for an operation. Pakistan retaliated the very next day by sending F-16s into Indian territory, downing a jet which fell into PoK, and taking a pilot hostage. We too managed to down an F-16, but unfortunately it fell into PoK too.
I am no military expert, merely a layperson who is an Indian citizen. I will present my view of the situation and what India should do now.
First, those many who predicted that Pakistan will not respond military to Balakot were wrong. Pakistan responded, escalated, and quickly.
Second, one must wonder what business Pakistani jets had in Indian airspace. There are no terror camps in Indian Kashmir, or anywhere. Pakistan PM Imran Khan said the operation was merely a show of power. We could take him at his word. Or we could take the Indian government at its word, and believe that Pakistan intended to bomb military installations in Indian Kashmir.
This second possibility, if it had been executed, would have meant an act of war. From here, there would have been no going back. There would have been an actual war. India would be forced to bomb Pakistani military installations in PoK, and elsewhere.
Imran offers us peace. What is the bargain here? You give back India’s pilot and we talk peace. That is the basic condition we must set. But is this enough? This would mean a moral victory for Pakistan and for Imran’s effort for “peace talks”.
Why not set another precondition? Pakistan’s hands are tied by the Geneva Convention. We must ask Pakistan to give us Masood Azhar, Hafiz Saeed and all the other terrorists responsible for a host of attacks in India over the past 20 years. This is the real minimum. Without this there can be no talks.
And if Pakistan is unwilling to do so, heck we can re-enter Pakistani airspace and take out the terror camps we decided not to the first time — the Lashkar-e-Taiba HQ and the Jaish-e-Mohammed HQ in Bahawalpur. Yes, some civilians may be killed, but I am willing to swallow that.
What would Pakistan do? Will they approach the UN? They could go ahead. Would they actually bomb Indian military installations then? Let them do so, then we have a real war on our hands.
We shall then be able to bomb Pakistani military installations anywhere in that country. War sirens and blackouts and booms will be heard in Pakistan’s major cities, and this will be retaliated with the same in India.
Is an India-Pakistan war such a steep price to pay? China will be disinclined to intervene militarily, and so will the Western powers. India’s conventional power is superior to Pakistan’s, and neither country is foolish enough to use nuclear weapons. Even in that case, as Musharraf said, one Pakistani hydrogen bomb dropping in India will see the annihilation of Pakistan itself. So Pakistan is unlikely to take that option.
Indians will suffer, Pakistanis will suffer, our normal lives will be affected, but India will win, even if we were to be conventionally equal. This is because India’s economy, far stronger and larger than Pakistan’s, will survive the war. It will be able to produce resources for war much more efficiently than Pakistan’s. Pakistan is in deep debt, it wants an IMF bailout. Its economy is in tatters. Pakistan cannot continue the war for long. It must seek ceasefire at some point.
When thus we shall have Pakistan on its knees (as we did in 1971), we can pursue dialogue from a position of strength. What the particulars of our demands will be I do not know, but one of them would certainly be an end to support for militancy in Kashmir. Could LoC be made the international border?
I admit all of this is simplistic, but as I said, I am no military expert. What I do feel is this — Pakistan has been bleeding India for over seven decades. We are really, really tired of this menace. It never seems to get better. At this rate, Pakistani support for terrorism (now a global problem) will never wane. At this rate, Kashmir will continue to boil, harder and harder. Who knows what the end will be?
I have major disagreements with Modi and the BJP and what they stand for. But I have to admit that the man has real guts. And if there is anyone who could end the menace of Pakistani state terror, it is him. And now could be the time.
