What lies ahead for Kashmir after the death of Article 370?
The BJP-led government scrapped the special status of Jammu and Kashmir under Article 370 of the Constitution on August 5, and divided the state into two Union Territories. Now that the deed is done, and the bifurcation official too, it is time to analyse where we go from here.
Firstly, there was nothing illegal about the abrogation of special status. The erstwhile Constitution of Jammu and Kashmir stated that the state Assembly must approve a move like the scrapping of special status. But since the state was under President’s Rule, the consent of the administration (read: governor) and the president of India was legally sufficient to abrogate the special constitutional status. This is simply because the governor represented the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly at that time.
There are a few liberal arguments against the government’s move. One, that a people must be free to choose for themselves whether they wish to be part of the Indian Union. Such a view is tied up with the notion that boundaries are mere constructs. However, I would consider such an opinion too idealistic in the present age. It also suffers from an innate weakness: The smallest unit of a polity is the individual. Every human being is different. What if I insist that I will secede from the Indian Union, or demand autonomy, write down my own laws, effectively making me a law unto myself? Would this be acceptable to anybody, and would it be reasonable to grant such a demand?
However, the so-called liberals (often Leftists misrepresenting themselves as liberals) have a bigger grouse: That the people of the state of Jammu and Kashmir were not “consulted” before the abrogation of their special status. The people who make this argument can be divided into two lots: the ones who willfully ignore the realities on the ground and are therefore making the argument merely to create an obstacle, and the others, who are too naive to realise this and are mere followers of these intellectuals.
It was indeed possible to take a referendum in Kashmir, or a vote in the state Assembly. I say was, because this phase had ended by the early 1980s. Once militancy set in, once the imagination of the people of the state was fired not by their ethnic and cultural identities but through religious indoctrination, it was no longer feasible to even suggest a referendum or an Assembly vote. Think back to mid-2014, when the Modi-led government attempted to open a discussion about the abrogation of special status. The “mainstream” parties in the Valley reacted with anger, the common man protested, and the separatists issued threats.
Much more recently, PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti issued a declaration that were Article 370 and Article 35A to be abrogated, the Valley would go up in flames. It therefore made complete sense to put Mufti and the Abdullahs under house arrest before proceeding with these abrogations. Those who refuse to realise these simple facts are not worthy of being engaged in a debate on Kashmir.
I also believe that there were only two ways to “solve” the problem in Indian Kashmir — to grant it independence or extensive autonomy, or to completely integrate it with the Indian Union. The first option would have led to a Pakistani assault on Indian-held Kashmir that would provoke a reaction from India, leading to a bloody war in the region.
Therefore, the second option remained — that of integrating Kashmir fully with the Union. Given the situation in the state over the past few decades, there was no other way to do this but by force. Indeed, the way the government went about it was undemocratic (though legal). But it was the only feasible way to do it.
The government had no other option but to impose an extensive curfew in the state and cut it off from all communication systems. One can argue about the length of time such restrictions must continue. They are now being eased and will eventually be lifted (which I hope happens soon).
The question now arises as to what Kashmir would look like, or should look like, in the near and medium-term future. Businesses from the Indian mainland will now establish themselves in Kashmir. Indians can now freely invest in Kashmir and buy houses there. If enough employment opportunities are created, there will be an influx of people from other states into the region. There will be greater exchange of ideas and mixing of cultures. I believe multiculturalism will help reduce the force of militancy in Kashmir and integrate it culturally and morally into the Indian mainstream. This is of critical importance if the Kashmir problem is to be “solved”.
I do not stand with those who consider demographic change in Kashmir as a terrible evil. In fact, to some extent I would welcome such change. It would reduce the power of the Islamist elites and their psychological hold on the people of Kashmir, by creating a fresh constituency of non-indoctrinated, perhaps non-Muslim Indians. We must also remember that demographic change is a historical reality in all parts of the world, including in Kashmir. Go through the last 800 years of Kashmiri history and you shall be surprised to find out the extent to which demographics in the region have been transformed, often by not-so peaceful means.
Here’s another interesting tidbit — the same people who oppose the “sons of the soil” theorists in Maharashtra and the anti-immigration right-wing in Europe also denounce the possibility of demographic change in Kashmir. Hypocrisy much?
Historical evidence suggests that the struggles between nation-states and peoples within who demand independence or autonomy have almost always been resolved by the state conceding the demands of the agitating group in significant measure. However, the Indian state has always acted forcefully against secessionist demands. But once the secessionist movements have weakened, Indian governments have always been willing to negotiate. Consider the case of the Northeastern states. I believe and hope this model is being replicated in Kashmir, though peace and integration will be a harder process there due to the presence of the greatest force-multiplying factor in history: religion.
Lastly, the 5000-year-old Indian civilisation has always shown the ability to assimilate and integrate diverse cultures and traditions. I would entreat those who treat all Kashmiris as terrorists or terrorist sympathisers to stop doing so immediately. Now that Kashmir is officially integrated with the rest of India, we must embrace Kashmiris as our own people. Thankfully, the Modi government has in the recent past moved swiftly against those who conducted attacks on Kashmiris studying in other parts of India.
I believe that Kashmir will slowly be socially, morally and politically integrated with the Indian Union. However, this will take years, probably a few decades to happen, and we must be patient and resourceful.
